Hamburger vs 1. FSV Mainz 05: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hamburgervs
1. FSV Mainz 05The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hamburger have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hamburger have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 2.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hamburger at 36%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Hamburger is priced at 2.55. The draw is priced at 3.56. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 2.63.
Hamburger have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hamburger have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. FSV Mainz 05 are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hamburger or 1. FSV Mainz 05?
Our model rates 1. FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hamburger vs 1. FSV Mainz 05?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Hamburger wins, 5 draws, 5 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 | Hamburger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.