Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
Union BerlinThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 62%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Union Berlin (2-5-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union Berlin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.48.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 62%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Union Berlin at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.48. The draw is priced at 4.74. Union Berlin is priced at 5.95.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Union Berlin have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are on 2 wins in a row. Union Berlin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Union Berlin are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Union Berlin?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, 5 draws, 8 Union Berlin wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Hamburger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.