Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Groningenvs
Fortuna SittardThe model puts Groningen at 64%. The model leans toward Groningen. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Groningen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Groningen have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Groningen is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Groningen at 64%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Fortuna Sittard at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Groningen. Groningen is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 4.88. Fortuna Sittard is priced at 5.9.
Groningen have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Fortuna Sittard have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Groningen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Groningen average 2 goals per game this season. Groningen average 59% possession. Fortuna Sittard average 2 goals per game this season. Fortuna Sittard average 24% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Groningen or Fortuna Sittard?
Our model rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Groningen wins, 1 draws, 6 Fortuna Sittard wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 4 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 9 |  Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Twente | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 16 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 17 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.