Paris vs Nice: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Parisvs
NiceThe model puts Paris at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Paris have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nice have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris is priced at 2.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paris at 44%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Nice at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Paris. Paris is priced at 2.2. The draw is priced at 3.38. Nice is priced at 3.28.
Paris have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paris have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Nice have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paris or Nice?
Our model rates Paris as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paris vs Nice?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Paris wins, 1 draws, 0 Nice wins.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympique de Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lille OSC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Troyes AC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 11 |  Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  AS Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Stade Rennais | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.