Atalanta vs Bologna 1909: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atalantavs
Bologna 1909The model puts Atalanta at 53%. The model leans toward Atalanta. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Atalanta.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atalanta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bologna 1909 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atalanta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atalanta is priced at 1.845.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atalanta at 53%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Bologna 1909 at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Atalanta. Atalanta is priced at 1.845. The draw is priced at 3.72. Bologna 1909 is priced at 4.12.
Atalanta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Bologna 1909 have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atalanta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Bologna 1909 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atalanta or Bologna 1909?
Our model rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna 1909?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Atalanta wins, 3 draws, 6 Bologna 1909 wins.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Udinese Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Como | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 |  Lecce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 | Bologna 1909 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Frosinone Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Unione Venezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Torino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Parma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 20 |  Monza 1912 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.