Willem II vs Heerenveen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Willem IIvs
HeerenveenThe model puts Heerenveen at 49%. The model leans toward Heerenveen. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Willem II.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Willem II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heerenveen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Willem II have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heerenveen is priced at 1.81.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Willem II at 28%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Heerenveen at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Heerenveen. Willem II is priced at 3.82. The draw is priced at 4.16. Heerenveen is priced at 1.81.
Willem II have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Heerenveen have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Willem II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Heerenveen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Willem II average 1 goals per game this season. Willem II average 32% possession. Heerenveen average 2 goals per game this season. Heerenveen average 46% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Willem II or Heerenveen?
Our model rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Willem II wins, 4 draws, 6 Heerenveen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 4 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 7 |
| 5 |  Groningen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 6 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 8 |  Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 12 |  Twente | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 16 | Feyenoord | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 17 | Heerenveen | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:9 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:12 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.