Orsomarso vs Real Cundinamarca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orsomarsovs
Real CundinamarcaThe model puts Orsomarso at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Orsomarso (7-6-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Orsomarso have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Cundinamarca have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orsomarso have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Orsomarso is priced at 2.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Orsomarso at 39%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Real Cundinamarca at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Orsomarso is priced at 2.46. The draw is priced at 2.75. Real Cundinamarca is priced at 3.035.
Orsomarso have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Cundinamarca have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Orsomarso have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Cundinamarca have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orsomarso or Real Cundinamarca?
Our model rates Orsomarso as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orsomarso vs Real Cundinamarca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Orsomarso wins, 6 draws, 2 Real Cundinamarca wins.
League table
Colombia. Categoria Primera B - Clausura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leones | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4:2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Independiente Yumbo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 4 |  Patriotas Boyaca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 5 |
| 5 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 5 |
| 6 | Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Deportes Quindío | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:3 | 5 |
| 8 |  Tigres Futbol Club | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 9 |  Envigado | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Boca Juniors De Cali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 11 |  Bogota | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7:11 | 3 |
| 13 |  Barranquilla | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 14 |  Atletico Cali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:6 | 2 |
| 15 |  Internacional Palmira | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.