Real Santander vs Independiente Yumbo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Santandervs
Independiente YumboThe model puts Independiente Yumbo at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Real Santander.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Santander have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente Yumbo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Santander have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente Yumbo is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Santander at 33%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Independiente Yumbo at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Real Santander is priced at 3. The draw is priced at 3.05. Independiente Yumbo is priced at 2.28.
Real Santander have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Independiente Yumbo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Santander have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Independiente Yumbo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Santander or Independiente Yumbo?
Our model rates Independiente Yumbo as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Santander vs Independiente Yumbo?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 2 Real Santander wins, 7 draws, 4 Independiente Yumbo wins.
League table
Colombia. Categoria Primera B - Clausura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leones | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4:2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 7 |
| 3 | Independiente Yumbo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 4 |  Patriotas Boyaca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 5 |
| 5 |  Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 5 |
| 6 |  Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Deportes Quindío | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:3 | 5 |
| 8 |  Tigres Futbol Club | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 9 |  Envigado | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Boca Juniors De Cali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 11 |  Bogota | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 12 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7:11 | 3 |
| 13 |  Barranquilla | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 14 |  Atletico Cali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:6 | 2 |
| 15 |  Internacional Palmira | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.