AS Monaco vs Olympique de Marseille: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AS Monacovs
Olympique de MarseilleThe model puts AS Monaco at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AS Monaco have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AS Monaco have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AS Monaco is priced at 2.51.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AS Monaco at 38%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. AS Monaco is priced at 2.51. The draw is priced at 3.8. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 2.56.
AS Monaco have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Olympique de Marseille have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
AS Monaco have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. AS Monaco are on 2 wins in a row. Olympique de Marseille have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AS Monaco or Olympique de Marseille?
Our model rates AS Monaco as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AS Monaco vs Olympique de Marseille?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 AS Monaco wins, 3 draws, 6 Olympique de Marseille wins.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympique de Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lille OSC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Nice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Troyes AC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Paris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 11 |  Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | AS Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Stade Rennais | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 18 |  Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.