Al-Faisaly Harmah vs Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Faisaly Harmahvs
Al-Fateh Al-AhsaThe model puts Al-Faisaly Harmah at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al-Faisaly Harmah.
- −The head-to-head record favours Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa (4-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Faisaly Harmah have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Faisaly Harmah have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al-Faisaly Harmah is priced at 2.467.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Faisaly Harmah at 39%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Al-Faisaly Harmah is priced at 2.467. The draw is priced at 3.385. Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa is priced at 2.711.
Al-Faisaly Harmah have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al-Faisaly Harmah have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Faisaly Harmah or Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa?
Our model rates Al-Faisaly Harmah as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly Harmah vs Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Al-Faisaly Harmah wins, 4 draws, 7 Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa wins.
Odds movement
League table
Saudi Arabia. Saudi Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Nassr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Riyadh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 4 |  Ettifaq Dammam | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Al-Qadisiyah | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Neom SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 7 |  Al Kholood | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 8 |  Al-Ittihad Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Al Hazem Rass | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Al Draih | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Al-Khaleej | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:0 | 2 |
| 12 |  Al-Taawon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Al Shabab Riyadh | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 14 | Al-Faisaly Harmah | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 15 |  Al Feiha | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
| 17 |  Abha | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 18 |  Al-Riyadh SC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.