Genoa vs Como: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Genoavs
ComoThe model puts Como at 54%. The model leans toward Como. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Genoa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Como have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Genoa have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Como is priced at 1.725.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Genoa at 18%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Como at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Como. Genoa is priced at 5.3. The draw is priced at 3.5. Como is priced at 1.725.
Genoa have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Como have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Genoa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Como have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Genoa or Como?
Our model rates Como as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Genoa vs Como?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 3 Genoa wins, 4 draws, 4 Como wins.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Lazio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Udinese Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 | Como | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Torino | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Frosinone Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Parma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Unione Venezia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Monza 1912 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.