Juventus vs Milan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Juventusvs
MilanThe model puts Juventus at 47%. The model leans toward Juventus. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Juventus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Milan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Juventus have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Juventus is priced at 2.015.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Juventus at 47%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Milan at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Juventus. Juventus is priced at 2.015. The draw is priced at 3.36. Milan is priced at 3.84.
Juventus have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Milan have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Juventus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Juventus are on 2 wins in a row. Milan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Juventus or Milan?
Our model rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Juventus vs Milan?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Juventus wins, 6 draws, 4 Milan wins.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 | Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Lazio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Udinese Calcio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Como | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Torino | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Frosinone Calcio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Parma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Unione Venezia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Monza 1912 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.