AFC Champions League 2

Arkadag vs Al-Muharraq: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Arkadagvs

Al-Muharraq

Our predictionAl-Muharraq to win

Model score: Low · 4/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Al-Muharraq at 37%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Arkadag33%

Draw31%

2 · Al-Muharraq37%

1 · ArkadagDraw2 · Al-Muharraq

Full team comparison →

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%

1-09.7%

0-19.6%

2-18.2%

1-28.1%

0-07.5%

Team strength rating

Arkadag

Al-Muharraq

Expected goals

1.31Arkadag

1.29Al-Muharraq

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Arkadag Al-Muharraq

Key points

The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
Al-Muharraq is priced at 2.497.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Al-Muharraq win2.50Fair

Double chanceAl-Muharraq or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	10	6	3
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	6	8	5	2
3	3	4	2
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Arkadag2.91+0.6%

1X2Draw3.02-0.3%

1X2Al-Muharraq2.50-0.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Al-Muharraq at 37%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Arkadag at 33%.

The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Al-Muharraq is priced at 2.497. Arkadag is priced at 2.913. The draw is priced at 3.015. The market frames this as a close contest.

Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →