Bolivia vs Paraguay: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Boliviavs
ParaguayThe model puts Paraguay at 63%. The model leans toward Paraguay. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Paraguay.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bolivia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paraguay have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bolivia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paraguay is priced at 1.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bolivia at 15%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Paraguay at 63%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Paraguay. Bolivia is priced at 6.25. The draw is priced at 4.38. Paraguay is priced at 1.5.
Bolivia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Paraguay have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bolivia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Paraguay have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bolivia or Paraguay?
Our model rates Paraguay as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bolivia vs Paraguay?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 4 Bolivia wins, 4 draws, 6 Paraguay wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.