Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Independiente del Vallevs
FlamengoThe model puts Independiente del Valle at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Flamengo.
- −Independiente del Valle are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Flamengo are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Independiente del Valle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Flamengo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente del Valle will be without Arroyo, Casarez, Mercado, Villar G..
- Flamengo will be without Fernandes Araujo, Sandro, Plata.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Independiente del Valle at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Flamengo at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Independiente del Valle is priced at 2.62. The draw is priced at 3.11. Flamengo is priced at 2.864.
Independiente del Valle have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Flamengo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Independiente del Valle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Flamengo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Independiente del Valle or Flamengo?
Our model rates Independiente del Valle as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Independiente del Valle wins, 2 draws, 2 Flamengo wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.