UEFA Champions League

Manchester United vs Sabah Baku: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Manchester Unitedvs

Sabah Baku

Our predictionManchester United to win

Model score: Medium · 50/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Manchester United at 84%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Manchester United are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Manchester United84%

Draw11%

2 · Sabah Baku5%

1 · Manchester UnitedDraw2 · Sabah Baku

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.82+27.7%

1X2Sabah Baku25.00+1.4%

1X2Draw8.40-0.3%

1X2Manchester United1.12-1.1%

BTTSYes1.90-27.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Manchester United

Sabah Baku

Most likely scorelines

2-019.9%

1-016.3%

3-016.2%

4-09.9%

0-06.7%

2-15.3%

Expected goals

2.44Manchester United

0.26Sabah Baku

Over 2.5 goals51%

Both teams to score21%

Match DNA

Manchester United Sabah Baku

Key points

Manchester United will be without Baleba, de Ligt, Diallo, Rashford M., Ugarte M., Heaton T..
Sabah Baku will be without Aliev.
Manchester United is priced at 1.12.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Manchester United win1.12Fair (-1.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1
0	7	2
1	16	4
2	20	5
3	16	4
4	10	3
5	5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Manchester United at 84%. The model puts the draw at 11%. The model puts Sabah Baku at 5%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Manchester United. Manchester United is priced at 1.12. The draw is priced at 8.4. Sabah Baku is priced at 25.

The model gives 21% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Manchester United or Sabah Baku?

Our model rates Manchester United as the most likely outcome at 84% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Manchester United vs Sabah Baku?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchMickels J.Sabah Baku8.3

Manchester United

Starting XI

1Lammens6.5
2Dalot D.6.2
3Mazraoui6.9
5Maguire7.9
8Fernandes Br.7.9
10Cunha M.6.6
17Santos A.6.9
19Mbeumo6.4
26Heaven A.6.4
30Sesko B.5.9
37Mainoo K.6.6

Unavailable

Baleba (Questionable)
de Ligt (Missing Player)
Diallo (Questionable)
Rashford M. (Questionable)
Ugarte M. (Missing Player)
Heaton T. (Missing Player)

Coach: Carrick M.

Sabah Baku

Starting XI

3Solvet7.0
5Dashdamirov6.4
7Rahmonaliyev8.0
8Nwachukwu8.2
13Lepinjica7.4
20Mickels J.8.3
21Simic7.8
27Puchacz7.9
34Severina X.6.9
80Zedadka A.7.5
92Pokatilov5.1

Unavailable

Aliev (Missing Player)

Coach: Valdas Dambrauskas

League table

UEFA Champions League (League stage)

#	Team	GP	W	L	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	1	1	0	2:0	3
2	Aston Villa	1	1	0	3:2	3
3	Real Betis	1	1	0	3:2	3
4	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	3:2	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	2:1	3
6	AEK Athens	1	1	0	1:0	3
7	Arsenal	0	0	0	0:0	0
8	Liverpool	0	0	0	0:0	0
9	Manchester United	0	0	0	0:0	0
10	Paris Saint-Germain	0	0	0	0:0	0
11	Napoli	0	0	0	0:0	0
12	Slavia Prague	0	0	0	0:0	0
13	RC Lens	0	0	0	0:0	0
14	Slovan Bratislava	0	0	0	0:0	0
15	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0:0	0
16	Roma	0	0	0	0:0	0
17	PSV Eindhoven	0	0	0	0:0	0
18	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0:0	0
19	Barcelona	0	0	0	0:0	0
20	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0:0	0
21	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0:0	0
22	Viking	0	0	0	0:0	0
23	Bodo-Glimt	0	0	0	0:0	0
24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	0	0	0:0	0
25	Galatasaray	0	0	0	0:0	0
26	Fenerbahce	0	0	0	0:0	0
27	Shakhtar Donetsk	0	0	0	0:0	0
28	Como	0	0	0	0:0	0
29	RasenBallsport Leipzig	0	0	0	0:0	0
30	Sabah Baku	0	0	0	0:0	0
31	Villarreal	1	0	1	2:3	0
32	Lille OSC	1	0	1	2:3	0
33	Club Brugge	1	0	1	2:3	0
34	Internazionale Milano	1	0	1	1:2	0
35	LASK Linz	1	0	1	0:1	0
36	Porto	1	0	1	0:2	0