UEFA Champions League

PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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PSV Eindhovenvs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Our predictionPSV Eindhoven to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 68%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours PSV Eindhoven.
−PSV Eindhoven are dealing with notable absentees.
+Shakhtar Donetsk are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · PSV Eindhoven68%

Draw18%

2 · Shakhtar Donetsk14%

1 · PSV EindhovenDraw2 · Shakhtar Donetsk

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.26+20.6%

1X2PSV Eindhoven1.41+0.8%

1X2Shakhtar Donetsk6.80+0.5%

1X2Draw5.00-1.3%

BTTSYes1.58-20.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

PSV Eindhoven

Shakhtar Donetsk

Recent form

PSV EindhovenWWWWD

Shakhtar DonetskWLWWW

Most likely scorelines

2-015.2%

1-014.5%

3-010.6%

2-18.7%

1-18.3%

0-06.9%

Expected goals

2.10PSV Eindhoven

0.57Shakhtar Donetsk

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score38%

Match DNA

PSV Eindhoven Shakhtar Donetsk

Key points

PSV Eindhoven have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
PSV Eindhoven will be without Bro Hansen, Nagalo, Ouaissa, Man D., Junior Maur., Obispo, Plea, Sildillia, Schouten J..
Shakhtar Donetsk will be without Gomes, Obah, Korniienko, Pedrinho, Puzankov, Tvardovskyi, Fesiun, Shved.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2PSV Eindhoven win1.41Fair (+0.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	4	1
1	15	8	2
2	15	9	3
3	11	6	2
4	6	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 68%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.41. The draw is priced at 5. Shakhtar Donetsk is priced at 6.8.

PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.

PSV Eindhoven have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. PSV Eindhoven are on 4 wins in a row. Shakhtar Donetsk have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, PSV Eindhoven or Shakhtar Donetsk?

Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meetings: 1 PSV Eindhoven wins, 0 draws, 0 Shakhtar Donetsk wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchPerisicPSV Eindhoven9.2

PSV Eindhoven

Starting XI

2Geertruida6.3
5Perisic9.2
6Flamingo R.7.7
7van Bommel8.4
8Dest8.3
9Pepi R.7.7
10Wanner6.3
18Kostic6.8
20Til G.7.9
24Sano7.3
32Kovar M.7.0

Unavailable

Bro Hansen (Missing Player)
Nagalo (Missing Player)
Ouaissa (Missing Player)
Man D. (Missing Player)
Junior Maur. (Missing Player)
Obispo (Questionable)
Plea (Missing Player)
Sildillia (Missing Player)
Schouten J. (Missing Player)

Coach: Peter Bosz

Shakhtar Donetsk

Starting XI

5Bondar V.7.5
9Elias6.6
11Da Silva6.2
13Pedro Henrique7.0
14Silva6.7
17Tobias6.4
22Matvienko M.5.9
27Ocheretko5.1
29Nazaryna E.5.4
30Alisson6.7
31Riznyk D.7.1

Unavailable

Gomes (Missing Player)
Obah (Missing Player)
Korniienko (Missing Player)
Pedrinho (Missing Player)
Puzankov (Missing Player)
Tvardovskyi (Missing Player)
Fesiun (Missing Player)
Shved (Missing Player)

Coach: Turan Ar.

League table

UEFA Champions League (League stage)

#	Team	GP	W	L	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	1	1	0	2:0	3
2	Aston Villa	1	1	0	3:2	3
3	Real Betis	1	1	0	3:2	3
4	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	3:2	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	2:1	3
6	AEK Athens	1	1	0	1:0	3
7	Arsenal	0	0	0	0:0	0
8	Liverpool	0	0	0	0:0	0
9	Manchester United	0	0	0	0:0	0
10	Paris Saint-Germain	0	0	0	0:0	0
11	Napoli	0	0	0	0:0	0
12	Slavia Prague	0	0	0	0:0	0
13	RC Lens	0	0	0	0:0	0
14	Slovan Bratislava	0	0	0	0:0	0
15	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0:0	0
16	Roma	0	0	0	0:0	0
17	PSV Eindhoven	0	0	0	0:0	0
18	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0:0	0
19	Barcelona	0	0	0	0:0	0
20	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0:0	0
21	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0:0	0
22	Viking	0	0	0	0:0	0
23	Bodo-Glimt	0	0	0	0:0	0
24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	0	0	0:0	0
25	Galatasaray	0	0	0	0:0	0
26	Fenerbahce	0	0	0	0:0	0
27	Shakhtar Donetsk	0	0	0	0:0	0
28	Como	0	0	0	0:0	0
29	RasenBallsport Leipzig	0	0	0	0:0	0
30	Sabah Baku	0	0	0	0:0	0
31	Villarreal	1	0	1	2:3	0
32	Lille OSC	1	0	1	2:3	0
33	Club Brugge	1	0	1	2:3	0
34	Internazionale Milano	1	0	1	1:2	0
35	LASK Linz	1	0	1	0:1	0
36	Porto	1	0	1	0:2	0