UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahce vs Roma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Fenerbahcevs

Roma

Our predictionRoma to win

Model score: Medium · 51/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Roma at 46%. The model leans toward Roma. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Roma.
+Fenerbahce are dealing with notable absentees.
−Roma are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Fenerbahce29%

Draw25%

2 · Roma46%

1 · FenerbahceDraw2 · Roma

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.22+6.4%

1X2Roma2.15+2.1%

1X2Fenerbahce3.32+0.0%

1X2Draw3.46-2.1%

BTTSYes1.60-6.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Fenerbahce

Roma

Most likely scorelines

1-112.4%

0-111.0%

1-29.0%

1-08.6%

0-28.0%

0-07.6%

Recent form

FenerbahceLWLDL

RomaWWWLD

Expected goals

1.13Fenerbahce

1.45Roma

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Fenerbahce Roma

Key points

Fenerbahce have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Roma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fenerbahce will be without Diouf, Fall, Jayden Oosterwolde, Asensio, Guendouzi, Becao R., Soyuncu, Yandas.
Roma will be without Ba, Pellegrini.
Roma is priced at 2.155.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Roma win2.15Fair (+2.1%)

Double chanceRoma or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	11	8	4	1
1	9	12	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	2
3	2	3	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Fenerbahce at 29%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Roma at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Roma. Fenerbahce is priced at 3.32. The draw is priced at 3.46. Roma is priced at 2.155.

The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Fenerbahce have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Roma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Roma are on 3 wins in a row.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Fenerbahce or Roma?

Our model rates Roma as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Fenerbahce vs Roma?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meetings: 0 Fenerbahce wins, 1 draws, 0 Roma wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchMalenRoma9.7

Fenerbahce

Starting XI

3Brown6.8
5Yuksek I.5.9
7Akturkoglu6.8
11Greenwood M.9.1
15Ake6.8
19Muriqi8.3
27Semedo6.6
31Moraes E.7.4
37Skriniar7.4
70Aydin6.8
91Kante7.0

Unavailable

Diouf (Missing Player)
Fall (Missing Player)
Jayden Oosterwolde (Missing Player)
Asensio (Questionable)
Guendouzi (Missing Player)
Becao R. (Missing Player)
Soyuncu (Missing Player)
Yandas (Missing Player)

Coach: İsmail Kartal

Roma

Starting XI

4Cristante8.6
5N'Dicka7.6
14Malen9.7
17Kone7.4
18Soule6.7
22Hermoso M.6.9
23Mancini G.7.8
43Wesley7.4
77Lulli7.2
86Mora6.6
99Svilar7.5

Unavailable

Ba (Missing Player)
Pellegrini (Missing Player)

Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini

League table

UEFA Champions League (League stage)

#	Team	GP	W	L	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	1	1	0	2:0	3
2	Aston Villa	1	1	0	3:2	3
3	Real Betis	1	1	0	3:2	3
4	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	3:2	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	2:1	3
6	AEK Athens	1	1	0	1:0	3
7	Arsenal	0	0	0	0:0	0
8	Liverpool	0	0	0	0:0	0
9	Manchester United	0	0	0	0:0	0
10	Paris Saint-Germain	0	0	0	0:0	0
11	Napoli	0	0	0	0:0	0
12	Slavia Prague	0	0	0	0:0	0
13	RC Lens	0	0	0	0:0	0
14	Slovan Bratislava	0	0	0	0:0	0
15	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0:0	0
16	Roma	0	0	0	0:0	0
17	PSV Eindhoven	0	0	0	0:0	0
18	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0:0	0
19	Barcelona	0	0	0	0:0	0
20	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0:0	0
21	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0:0	0
22	Viking	0	0	0	0:0	0
23	Bodo-Glimt	0	0	0	0:0	0
24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	0	0	0:0	0
25	Galatasaray	0	0	0	0:0	0
26	Fenerbahce	0	0	0	0:0	0
27	Shakhtar Donetsk	0	0	0	0:0	0
28	Como	0	0	0	0:0	0
29	RasenBallsport Leipzig	0	0	0	0:0	0
30	Sabah Baku	0	0	0	0:0	0
31	Villarreal	1	0	1	2:3	0
32	Lille OSC	1	0	1	2:3	0
33	Club Brugge	1	0	1	2:3	0
34	Internazionale Milano	1	0	1	1:2	0
35	LASK Linz	1	0	1	0:1	0
36	Porto	1	0	1	0:2	0