Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sturm Grazvs
Stade RennaisThe model puts Stade Rennais at 55%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Sturm Graz are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sturm Graz will be without Jatta S., Kayombo, Soglo, Влодарчик, Geyrhofer, Grgic, Diakite.
- Stade Rennais is priced at 1.73.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Sturm Graz at 22%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Stade Rennais at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Stade Rennais. Sturm Graz is priced at 4.42. The draw is priced at 4.02. Stade Rennais is priced at 1.73.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sturm Graz or Stade Rennais?
Our model rates Stade Rennais as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.