UEFA Europa League

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs

Celje

Our predictionBayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Model score: Medium · 50/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 80%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.

Win probabilities

1 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen80%

Draw13%

2 · Celje7%

1 · Bayer 04 LeverkusenDraw2 · Celje

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.07+28.9%

1X2Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.20+0.2%

1X2Celje13.00-0.1%

1X2Draw7.20-0.1%

BTTSYes1.69-28.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Celje

Most likely scorelines

2-018.7%

1-015.9%

3-014.7%

4-08.6%

0-06.8%

2-16.4%

Expected goals

2.35Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0.34Celje

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score26%

Match DNA

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Celje

Key points

Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.195.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Bayer 04 Leverkusen win1.20Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	2
1	16	5
2	19	6	1
3	15	5
4	9	3
5	4	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 80%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Celje at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.195. The draw is priced at 7.2. Celje is priced at 13.

The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Celje?

Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Europa League - League stage

#	Team	G
1	Sunderland	0:0
2	Crystal Palace	0:0
3	Bournemouth	0:0
4	Real Sociedad	0:0
5	Celta	0:0
6	FC Salzburg	0:0
7	Sturm Graz	0:0
8	Viktoria Plzen	0:0
9	AC Sparta Prague	0:0
10	Anderlecht	0:0
11	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	0:0
12	Olympique de Marseille	0:0
13	Stade Rennais	0:0
14	Lyon	0:0
15	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0:0
16	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	0:0
17	Juventus	0:0
18	Milan	0:0
19	N.E.C.	0:0
20	AZ Alkmaar	0:0
21	S.C.U. Torreense	0:0
22	Levski Sofia	0:0
23	Dinamo Zagreb	0:0
24	AC Omonia	0:0
25	OFI Crete	0:0
26	Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0
27	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	0:0
28	Lillestrom	0:0
29	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0:0
30	Lech Poznan	0:0
31	Benfica	0:0
32	Celtic	0:0
33	Celje	0:0
34	Besiktas	0:0
35	Ferencvarosi	0:0
36	Ararat - Armenia	0:0