Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
CeljeThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 90%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Bayer 04 Leverkusen are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Celje are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen will be without Culbreath, Eichhorn, Maza, Ben Seghir, Boniface, Doue G., Oermann, Tella, Hofmann J..
- Celje will be without Kotnik, Kvesic M., Pisek, Tutyskinas.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.035.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 3 | ||||
| 2 | 21 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 6 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 90%. The model puts the draw at 6%. The model puts Celje at 4%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.035. The draw is priced at 15. Celje is priced at 37.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Celje?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 90% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Celje?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.