Anderlecht vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Anderlechtvs
LyonThe model puts Lyon at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Anderlecht.
- +The head-to-head record favours Lyon (2-0-4).
- +Anderlecht are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Lyon are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Anderlecht have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Anderlecht have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Anderlecht will be without Camara, Hey L., Biancone, Koutsoupias I., Sardella K..
- Lyon will be without Abner Vinicius Da Silva Santos, Hamdani.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Anderlecht at 35%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Lyon at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Anderlecht is priced at 2.91. The draw is priced at 3.5. Lyon is priced at 2.36.
Anderlecht have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Lyon have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Anderlecht have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Anderlecht or Lyon?
Our model rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Lyon?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Anderlecht wins, 0 draws, 4 Lyon wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.