Besiktas vs Olympique de Marseille: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Besiktasvs
Olympique de MarseilleThe model puts Besiktas at 58%. The model leans toward Besiktas. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Besiktas.
- −Besiktas are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Olympique de Marseille are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Besiktas have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Besiktas have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Besiktas will be without Keles, Kokcu O., Rashica, Trossard.
- Olympique de Marseille will be without Nadi, Kondogbia G..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Besiktas at 58%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Besiktas. Besiktas is priced at 1.696. The draw is priced at 4.24. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 4.4.
Besiktas have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Olympique de Marseille have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Besiktas have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Besiktas are on 3 wins in a row. Olympique de Marseille have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Besiktas or Olympique de Marseille?
Our model rates Besiktas as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Besiktas vs Olympique de Marseille?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Besiktas wins, 0 draws, 1 Olympique de Marseille wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.