Levski Sofia vs FC Salzburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Levski Sofiavs
FC SalzburgThe model puts FC Salzburg at 47%. The model leans toward FC Salzburg. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours FC Salzburg.
- +Levski Sofia are dealing with notable absentees.
- −FC Salzburg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Levski Sofia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- FC Salzburg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia will be without Bouras, Kirilov, Moubarik, Serafimov N., Grujic, Kamdem, Sangare.
- FC Salzburg will be without Chase A., Diabate, Diakite, Matijasevic, Moser, Omoregie J..
- FC Salzburg is priced at 2.104.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Levski Sofia at 29%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts FC Salzburg at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward FC Salzburg. Levski Sofia is priced at 3.34. The draw is priced at 3.56. FC Salzburg is priced at 2.104.
FC Salzburg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Levski Sofia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. FC Salzburg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Levski Sofia or FC Salzburg?
Our model rates FC Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Levski Sofia vs FC Salzburg?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Levski Sofia wins, 0 draws, 2 FC Salzburg wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.