Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Sociedadvs
BournemouthThe model puts Bournemouth at 48%. The model leans toward Bournemouth. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bournemouth.
- +Real Sociedad are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Bournemouth are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Sociedad have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad will be without Aramburu, Odriozola, Zubeldia.
- Bournemouth will be without Araujo Jo., Junior Kroupi, Milosavljevic, Aarons M., Adli, Jebbison, Doak, Sanchez, Forster F..
- Bournemouth is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Sociedad at 28%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Bournemouth at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bournemouth. Real Sociedad is priced at 3.48. The draw is priced at 3.56. Bournemouth is priced at 2.06.
Bournemouth have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Sociedad have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Bournemouth have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bournemouth are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad or Bournemouth?
Our model rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad wins, 1 draws, 1 Bournemouth wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.