Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sunderlandvs
AZ AlkmaarThe model puts Sunderland at 64%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Sunderland are dealing with notable absentees.
- +AZ Alkmaar are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sunderland will be without Angulo, Bi, Browne A., Diarra, Mundle, Talbi, Ellborg.
- AZ Alkmaar will be without Resink, Zoet, Kasius.
- Sunderland is priced at 1.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Sunderland at 64%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Sunderland. Sunderland is priced at 1.49. The draw is priced at 4.36. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 6.55.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sunderland or AZ Alkmaar?
Our model rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.