Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn 07: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Borussia Dortmundvs
Paderborn 07The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 79%. The model leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Borussia Dortmund.
- +The head-to-head record favours Borussia Dortmund (7-3-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paderborn 07 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Borussia Dortmund is priced at 1.235.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 79%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Paderborn 07 at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 1.235. The draw is priced at 6.65. Paderborn 07 is priced at 10.5.
Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Paderborn 07 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Borussia Dortmund are on 4 wins in a row. Paderborn 07 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 28% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Borussia Dortmund or Paderborn 07?
Our model rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn 07?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 7 Borussia Dortmund wins, 3 draws, 1 Paderborn 07 wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:0 | 4 |
| 6 |  Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 12 | Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 14 |  Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 16 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Hamburger | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.