Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Augsburgvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 54%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Augsburg.
- −The head-to-head record favours Augsburg (10-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Augsburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Augsburg have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.752.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Augsburg at 25%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Augsburg is priced at 4.1. The draw is priced at 4.16. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.752.
Augsburg have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Augsburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Augsburg or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Augsburg wins, 1 draws, 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:0 | 4 |
| 6 |  Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 4 |
| 7 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 14 |  Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 16 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Hamburger | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.