Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Freiburgvs
Borussia MonchengladbachThe model puts Freiburg at 60%. The model leans toward Freiburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Freiburg.
- +The head-to-head record favours Freiburg (6-6-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Freiburg have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Monchengladbach have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Freiburg is priced at 1.664.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Freiburg at 60%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Borussia Monchengladbach at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Freiburg. Freiburg is priced at 1.664. The draw is priced at 4.2. Borussia Monchengladbach is priced at 4.64.
Freiburg have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Borussia Monchengladbach have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Freiburg have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Freiburg are on 5 wins in a row. Borussia Monchengladbach have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Freiburg or Borussia Monchengladbach?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Freiburg wins, 6 draws, 3 Borussia Monchengladbach wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:0 | 4 |
| 6 |  Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 14 |  Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 16 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 17 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Hamburger | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.