Lecce vs Monza 1912: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leccevs
Monza 1912The model puts Lecce at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lecce.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lecce have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monza 1912 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lecce have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lecce is priced at 2.57.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lecce at 39%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Monza 1912 at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Lecce is priced at 2.57. The draw is priced at 3.12. Monza 1912 is priced at 2.92.
Lecce have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Monza 1912 have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lecce have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lecce are on 2 wins in a row. Monza 1912 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lecce or Monza 1912?
Our model rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lecce vs Monza 1912?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Lecce wins, 8 draws, 5 Monza 1912 wins.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Milan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Frosinone Calcio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 9 |  Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Udinese Calcio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 13 |  Torino | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 14 | Lecce | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Bologna 1909 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 16 |  Parma | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:4 | 1 |
| 17 | Monza 1912 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:8 | 1 |
| 18 |  Unione Venezia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.