CF Montreal vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CF Montrealvs
CharlotteThe model puts CF Montreal at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours CF Montreal.
- −The head-to-head record favours Charlotte (2-1-5).
- +CF Montreal creates more chances (15 vs 10 shots per game).
- −CF Montreal are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Charlotte are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- CF Montreal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CF Montreal have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CF Montreal will be without Hidalgo, Josh-Duc Nteziryayo, Morales, Amaya F..
- Charlotte will be without Toffolo, Nimfasha Berchimas, Aron John, Diani, Westwood A..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CF Montreal at 43%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Charlotte at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. CF Montreal is priced at 2.35. The draw is priced at 3.76. Charlotte is priced at 2.76.
CF Montreal have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CF Montreal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
CF Montreal average 1 goals per game this season. CF Montreal average 48% possession. Charlotte average 1 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 44% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CF Montreal or Charlotte?
Our model rates CF Montreal as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CF Montreal vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 CF Montreal wins, 1 draws, 5 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
CF Montreal
- 0Breza
- 0Petrasso
- 0Vera
- 0Craig
- 0Bugaj
- 0Herbers
- 0Longstaff M.
- 0Piette
- 0Sanchez A
- 0Owusu P.
- 0Synchuk
- Hidalgo (2)
- Josh-Duc Nteziryayo (2)
- Morales (2)
- Amaya F. (2)
Charlotte
- 0Kahlina
- 0Schnegg D.
- 0Ream T.
- 0Kessler
- 0Cleary
- 0Biel-Bienne
- 0De la Torre L
- 0Goodwin
- 0Saint-Maximin
- 0Toklomati
- 0Abada
- Toffolo (2)
- Nimfasha Berchimas (2)
- Aron John (2)
- Diani (2)
- Westwood A. (2)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 49:21 | 43 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 30:26 | 40 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38:24 | 37 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 45:40 | 37 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36:31 | 37 |
| 6 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40:34 | 35 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 23 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 31:31 | 31 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 44:43 | 31 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 40:34 | 30 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 36:35 | 29 |
| 11 |  Minnesota United | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 34:37 | 29 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30:36 | 29 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 24:29 | 27 |
| 14 |  Austin | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 29:42 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23:58 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.