D.C. United vs Columbus Crew: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
D.C. Unitedvs
Columbus CrewThe model puts Columbus Crew at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Columbus Crew score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Columbus Crew.
- −The head-to-head record favours D.C. United (7-4-4).
- −D.C. United creates more chances (14 vs 12 shots per game).
- +Columbus Crew controls more of the ball (42% vs 56%).
- +D.C. United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- D.C. United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- D.C. United will be without Rowles, Segal.
- Columbus Crew will be without Thiaré, Bangura, Ali, Camacho R..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts D.C. United at 37%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Columbus Crew at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. D.C. United is priced at 2.65. The draw is priced at 3.54. Columbus Crew is priced at 2.544.
D.C. United have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Columbus Crew have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Columbus Crew have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
D.C. United average 1 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 42% possession. Columbus Crew average 2 goals per game this season. Columbus Crew average 56% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, D.C. United or Columbus Crew?
Our model rates Columbus Crew as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for D.C. United vs Columbus Crew?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 D.C. United wins, 4 draws, 4 Columbus Crew wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
D.C. United
- 0Johnson S.
- 0Kurokawa
- 0Dozzell
- 0Bartlett
- 0Hefti
- 0Peglow
- 0Servania
- 0Peltola M.
- 0Ordaz
- 0Hopkins
- 0Munteanu
- Rowles (2)
- Segal (2)
Columbus Crew
- 0Schulte
- 0Lennon Br.
- 0Zawadzki
- 0Amundsen
- 0Moreira S.
- 0Habroune
- 0Gomes An.
- 0Karumanchi
- 0Farsi
- 0Mendez Br.
- 0Gonzalo Tapia
- Thiaré (2)
- Bangura (2)
- Ali (2)
- Camacho R. (2)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 49:21 | 43 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 30:26 | 40 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38:24 | 37 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 45:40 | 37 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36:31 | 37 |
| 6 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40:34 | 35 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 23 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 31:31 | 31 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 44:43 | 31 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 40:34 | 30 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 36:35 | 29 |
| 11 |  Minnesota United | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 34:37 | 29 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30:36 | 29 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 24:29 | 27 |
| 14 |  Austin | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 29:42 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23:58 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.