USA. MLS

Austin vs Colorado Rapids: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Austinvs

Colorado Rapids

Our predictionAustin to win

Model score: Low · 19/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Austin at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Colorado Rapids.
+Austin creates more chances (12 vs 8 shots per game).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
−Austin are dealing with notable absentees.
+Colorado Rapids are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Austin38%

Draw26%

2 · Colorado Rapids36%

1 · AustinDraw2 · Colorado Rapids

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.13+13.2%

1X2Colorado Rapids2.72+1.4%

1X2Austin2.54+0.4%

1X2Draw3.40-1.8%

BTTSYes1.64-13.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.14Austin

1.01Colorado Rapids

Over 2.5 goals36%

Both teams to score43%

Recent form

AustinLLLLL

Colorado RapidsDWLDW

Most likely scorelines

1-113.4%

1-013.3%

0-111.7%

0-011.6%

2-17.7%

2-07.6%

Team strength rating

Austin

Colorado Rapids

Match DNA

Austin Colorado Rapids

Key points

Austin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Colorado Rapids have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Austin have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Austin will be without Desler, Uzuni.
Colorado Rapids will be without Diop, Ku-DiPietro, Steffen Z..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Austin win2.54Fair

Double chanceAustin or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	12	12	6	2
1	13	13	7	2
2	8	8	4	1
3	3	3	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Austin at 38%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Colorado Rapids at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Austin is priced at 2.544. The draw is priced at 3.4. Colorado Rapids is priced at 2.72.

Austin have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Colorado Rapids have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Austin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Colorado Rapids have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 55% possession. Colorado Rapids average 1 goals per game this season. Colorado Rapids average 53% possession.

The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Austin or Colorado Rapids?

Our model rates Austin as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Austin vs Colorado Rapids?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 12 meetings: 6 Austin wins, 2 draws, 4 Colorado Rapids wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchRosales Jo.Austin7.7

Austin

Starting XI

1Stuver6.7
4Hines-Ike7.3
5Svatok7.0
11Torres7.0
14Sabovic6.5
17Gallagher6.7
21Ramirez Cri.6.3
24Aperte J.6.3
29Biro6.8
30Rosales Jo.7.7
38Torres6.8

Unavailable

Desler (Questionable)
Uzuni (Missing Player)

Coach: Arnaud

Colorado Rapids

Starting XI

4Cannon R.6.1
5Williams6.5
6Holding R.6.5
10Aaronson5.6
12Atencio6.5
13Frederick6.5
29Navarro Mar.6.8
31Beaudry6.8
77Yapi6.3
88Maziz Yo.6.2
93Minoungou6.2

Unavailable

Diop (Missing Player)
Ku-DiPietro (Missing Player)
Steffen Z. (Missing Player)

Coach: Matthew Elliott Wells

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	5	4	49:21	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	7	4	30:26	40
3	Los Angeles	24	10	7	7	38:24	37
4	Dallas	23	10	6	7	45:40	37
5	St. Louis City	23	10	6	7	36:31	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	8	5	40:34	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	12	1	31:31	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	10	4	44:43	31
9	San Diego	23	8	9	6	40:34	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	9	5	36:35	29
11	Minnesota United	23	7	8	8	34:37	29
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	24	7	9	8	30:36	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	9	6	24:29	27
14	Austin	23	6	10	7	29:42	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	16	3	23:58	15

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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.