Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
Inter MiamiThe model puts Chicago Fire at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Chicago Fire creates more chances (16 vs 13 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Chicago Fire are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Inter Miami are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chicago Fire have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Miami have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chicago Fire will be without Mbokazi, Bamba J., Mueller Chr., Russo Franco.
- Inter Miami will be without Allende, Club Lujan, dos Santos Silva, Morales, Silvetti, Reguilon S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chicago Fire at 46%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Inter Miami at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Chicago Fire is priced at 2.13. The draw is priced at 4.16. Inter Miami is priced at 2.912.
Chicago Fire have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Inter Miami have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Fire have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Miami have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 52% possession. Inter Miami average 2 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 57% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or Inter Miami?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 4 Chicago Fire wins, 2 draws, 5 Inter Miami wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Chicago Fire
- 1Brady
- 3Elliott J.
- 5Rogers S.
- 6Saletros A.
- 7Haile Selassie
- 9Lewandowski
- 11Zinckernagel
- 12Dithejane
- 15Gutman A.
- 24Dean
- 42Davilla
- Mbokazi (Missing Player)
- Bamba J. (Questionable)
- Mueller Chr. (Missing Player)
- Russo Franco (Missing Player)
Inter Miami
- 4Mura F.
- 5Casemiro
- 7De Paul
- 8Segovia
- 9Suarez L.
- 10Messi
- 17Fray Ia.
- 19Berterame
- 37Falcon M.
- 42Bright
- 97St Clair D.
- Allende (Missing Player)
- Club Lujan (Missing Player)
- dos Santos Silva (Missing Player)
- Morales (Missing Player)
- Silvetti (Questionable)
- Reguilon S. (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 49:21 | 43 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 30:26 | 40 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38:24 | 37 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 45:40 | 37 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36:31 | 37 |
| 6 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40:34 | 35 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 23 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 31:31 | 31 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 44:43 | 31 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 40:34 | 30 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 36:35 | 29 |
| 11 |  Minnesota United | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 34:37 | 29 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30:36 | 29 |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 24:29 | 27 |
| 14 |  Austin | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 29:42 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23:58 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.