Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
Tottenham HotspurThe model puts Liverpool at 56%. The model leans toward Liverpool. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liverpool.
- +The head-to-head record favours Liverpool (10-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tottenham Hotspur have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool is priced at 1.81.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 56%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Tottenham Hotspur at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liverpool. Liverpool is priced at 1.81. The draw is priced at 3.86. Tottenham Hotspur is priced at 4.12.
Liverpool have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Tottenham Hotspur have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Tottenham Hotspur have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Liverpool wins, 3 draws, 2 Tottenham Hotspur wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.