Peterborough United vs Barnsley: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Peterborough Unitedvs
BarnsleyThe model puts Peterborough United at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Peterborough United (9-3-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Peterborough United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barnsley have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Peterborough United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Peterborough United is priced at 2.575.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Peterborough United at 39%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Barnsley at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Peterborough United is priced at 2.575. The draw is priced at 3.38. Barnsley is priced at 2.704.
Peterborough United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Barnsley have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Peterborough United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Barnsley have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Peterborough United average 1 goals per game this season. Peterborough United average 54% possession. Barnsley average 1 goals per game this season. Barnsley average 60% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Peterborough United or Barnsley?
Our model rates Peterborough United as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Peterborough United vs Barnsley?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Peterborough United wins, 3 draws, 3 Barnsley wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.