Coventry City vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Coventry Cityvs
Aston VillaThe model puts Aston Villa at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Coventry City (11-2-2).
- +Coventry City are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Aston Villa are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Coventry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coventry City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Coventry City will be without Woolfenden, Awoniyi, Kesler-Hayden, Onyeka, Wright H., Simms E., Eccles J..
- Aston Villa will be without Madjo, Goretzka, Cash, Maatsen I., Onana, Torres.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Coventry City at 34%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Aston Villa at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Aston Villa. Coventry City is priced at 3.136. The draw is priced at 3.58. Aston Villa is priced at 2.2.
Coventry City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Aston Villa have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Coventry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Coventry City are on 2 wins in a row. Aston Villa have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Coventry City average 4 goals per game this season. Coventry City average 66% possession.
The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 64% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Coventry City or Aston Villa?
Our model rates Aston Villa as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Coventry City vs Aston Villa?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Coventry City wins, 2 draws, 2 Aston Villa wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Coventry City
- 0Rushworth
- 0Pinnock Et.
- 0Amenda
- 0Thomas Bo.
- 0DaSilva J.
- 0Torp
- 0Yirenkyi
- 0van Ewijk M.
- 0Cherif
- 0Hamer G.
- 0Thomas-Asante
- Woolfenden (Missing Player)
- Awoniyi (Missing Player)
- Kesler-Hayden (Missing Player)
- Onyeka (Questionable)
- Wright H. (Missing Player)
- Simms E. (Missing Player)
- Eccles J. (Missing Player)
Aston Villa
- 0Bizot
- 0Ruggeri M.
- 0Mings
- 0Harwood-Bellis
- 0Wan-Bissaka
- 0Gomes da Silva
- 0Bogarde
- 0Mbaye
- 0Manzambi
- 0Edward
- 0Abraham Tam.
- Madjo (Missing Player)
- Goretzka (Missing Player)
- Cash (Questionable)
- Maatsen I. (Missing Player)
- Onana (Missing Player)
- Torres (Questionable)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.