Manchester City vs Norwich City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Manchester Cityvs
Norwich CityThe model puts Manchester City at 77%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Norwich City.
- −The head-to-head record favours Norwich City (2-2-11).
- −Manchester City are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Norwich City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Manchester City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Norwich City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester City will be without Doku J., Foden.
- Norwich City will be without Ahmed, Mahovo, Topic M..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| 1 | 18 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Manchester City at 77%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Norwich City at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Manchester City. Manchester City is priced at 1.13. The draw is priced at 9.2. Norwich City is priced at 16.
Manchester City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Norwich City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Manchester City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Norwich City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Norwich City are on 2 wins in a row.
Norwich City average 2 goals per game this season. Norwich City average 35% possession.
The model gives 29% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Manchester City or Norwich City?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Manchester City vs Norwich City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Manchester City wins, 2 draws, 11 Norwich City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Manchester City
- 0Donnarumma J.
- 0Lewes
- 0Guehi M.
- 0Reis
- 0Khusanov
- 0Bouaddi
- 0Kovacic
- 0Semenyo A.
- 0Ndiaye
- 0Allan
- 0Haaland E.
- Doku J. (Missing Player)
- Foden (Missing Player)
Norwich City
- 0Kovacevic V.
- 0Chrisene
- 0Cordoba Jo.
- 0McConville
- 0Стейси
- 0Mattsson
- 0Wright
- 0Musaba
- 0Schwartau
- 0Maghoma
- 0Makama
- Ahmed (Missing Player)
- Mahovo (Missing Player)
- Topic M. (Missing Player)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.