Africa Cup of Nations

Morocco vs Gabon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Moroccovs

Gabon

Our predictionMorocco to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Morocco at 73%. The model leans toward Morocco. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Morocco.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Morocco73%

Draw18%

2 · Gabon9%

1 · MoroccoDraw2 · Gabon

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.63+10.1%

1X2Draw5.20+0.6%

1X2Morocco1.27-0.2%

1X2Gabon10.00-0.4%

BTTSYes2.15-10.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

MoroccoWLWWL

GabonLWWLW

Team strength rating

Morocco

Gabon

Most likely scorelines

2-016.9%

1-015.8%

3-012.0%

2-17.9%

0-07.4%

1-17.4%

Expected goals

2.13Morocco

0.47Gabon

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score33%

Match DNA

Morocco Gabon

Key points

Morocco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Gabon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Morocco have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Morocco is priced at 1.27.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Morocco win1.27Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	16	7	2
2	17	8	2
3	12	6	1
4	6	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Morocco at 73%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Gabon at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Morocco. Morocco is priced at 1.27. The draw is priced at 5.2. Gabon is priced at 10.

Morocco have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Gabon have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Morocco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Gabon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →