Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Darmstadt 98vs
Arminia BielefeldThe model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Darmstadt 98 (10-3-2).
- +Recent form favours Arminia Bielefeld.
- +Darmstadt 98 are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Arminia Bielefeld are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Darmstadt 98 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Darmstadt 98 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Darmstadt 98 will be without Lakenmacher, Marseiler, Nuernberger, Papela M..
- Arminia Bielefeld will be without Hagmann, Daniel Richter, Schneider Le..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Darmstadt 98 at 36%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Darmstadt 98 is priced at 2.749. The draw is priced at 3.6. Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 2.35.
Darmstadt 98 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Arminia Bielefeld have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Darmstadt 98 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Darmstadt 98 average 2 goals per game this season. Darmstadt 98 average 50% possession. Arminia Bielefeld average 0 goals per game this season. Arminia Bielefeld average 38% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Darmstadt 98 or Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Darmstadt 98 wins, 3 draws, 2 Arminia Bielefeld wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:10 | 9 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:6 | 8 |
| 5 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:1 | 8 |
| 6 |  VfL Bochum | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 6 |
| 7 |  1. Magdeburg | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 8 |  VfL Osnabruck | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 9 |  Karlsruher | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | 5 |
| 10 | Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 11 |  Energie Cottbus | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 4 |
| 12 |  Greuther Furth | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 13 |  Hannover 96 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10:10 | 3 |
| 15 |  St. Pauli | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 16 |  Holstein | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 3 |
| 18 | Darmstadt 98 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2:7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.