Racing Club de Avellaneda vs Boca Juniors: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Racing Club de Avellanedavs
Boca JuniorsThe model puts Boca Juniors at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Boca Juniors.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Racing Club de Avellaneda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Racing Club de Avellaneda have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Boca Juniors is priced at 2.341.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Racing Club de Avellaneda at 27%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Boca Juniors at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Racing Club de Avellaneda is priced at 3.385. The draw is priced at 2.977. Boca Juniors is priced at 2.341.
Racing Club de Avellaneda have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Boca Juniors have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Racing Club de Avellaneda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Boca Juniors have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Racing Club de Avellaneda or Boca Juniors?
Our model rates Boca Juniors as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Racing Club de Avellaneda vs Boca Juniors?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Racing Club de Avellaneda wins, 5 draws, 4 Boca Juniors wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.