Libya vs Botswana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Libyavs
BotswanaThe model puts Libya at 58%. The model leans toward Libya. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Libya (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Libya have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botswana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Libya have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Libya is priced at 1.645.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Libya at 58%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Botswana at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Libya. Libya is priced at 1.645. The draw is priced at 3.58. Botswana is priced at 6.
Libya have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Botswana have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Libya have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Botswana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Libya or Botswana?
Our model rates Libya as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Libya vs Botswana?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Libya wins, 1 draws, 1 Botswana wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.