Africa Cup of Nations

Sierra Leone vs Zimbabwe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Sierra Leonevs

Zimbabwe

Our predictionSierra Leone to win

Model score: Low · 12/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Sierra Leone at 42%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Sierra Leone42%

Draw30%

2 · Zimbabwe28%

1 · Sierra LeoneDraw2 · Zimbabwe

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.99+5.5%

1X2Sierra Leone2.200.0%

1X2Draw3.140.0%

1X2Zimbabwe3.270.0%

BTTSNo1.73-5.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.3%

1-011.0%

2-19.1%

0-18.3%

2-08.1%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Sierra Leone

Zimbabwe

Expected goals

1.48Sierra Leone

1.12Zimbabwe

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Sierra Leone Zimbabwe

Key points

Sierra Leone is priced at 2.2.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Sierra Leone win2.20Fair

Double chanceSierra Leone or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	5	2
1	11	12	7	3
2	8	9	5	2
3	4	4	3
4	1	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Sierra Leone at 42%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Zimbabwe at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone is priced at 2.2. The draw is priced at 3.14. Zimbabwe is priced at 3.265.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →