Africa Cup of Nations

Rwanda vs Liberia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Rwandavs

Liberia

Our predictionRwanda to win

Model score: Low · 24/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Rwanda at 52%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Rwanda52%

Draw28%

2 · Liberia20%

1 · RwandaDraw2 · Liberia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.20+5.8%

1X2Rwanda1.77+0.0%

1X2Draw3.30+0.0%

1X2Liberia4.75+0.0%

BTTSNo1.60-5.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-012.8%

1-111.2%

2-011.1%

2-19.7%

0-07.4%

0-16.5%

Team strength rating

Rwanda

Liberia

Expected goals

1.73Rwanda

0.87Liberia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score48%

Match DNA

Rwanda Liberia

Key points

Rwanda is priced at 1.77.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Rwanda win1.77Fair

Double chanceRwanda or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	3
1	13	11	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	6	2
4	3	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Rwanda at 52%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Liberia at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Rwanda. Rwanda is priced at 1.77. The draw is priced at 3.3. Liberia is priced at 4.755.

The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →