Africa Cup of Nations

Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Tanzaniavs

Guinea-Bissau

Our predictionTanzania to win

Model score: Low · 1/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Tanzania at 36%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Tanzania36%

Draw35%

2 · Guinea-Bissau29%

1 · TanzaniaDraw2 · Guinea-Bissau

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.15+9.1%

1X2Tanzania2.520.0%

1X2Draw2.630.0%

1X2Guinea-Bissau3.080.0%

BTTSNo1.67-9.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-010.3%

0-19.0%

2-18.7%

1-27.6%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Tanzania

Guinea-Bissau

Expected goals

1.38Tanzania

1.22Guinea-Bissau

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Tanzania Guinea-Bissau

Key points

Tanzania is priced at 2.52.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Tanzania win2.52Fair

Double chanceTanzania or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	9	5	2
1	10	12	8	3
2	7	9	5	2
3	3	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Tanzania at 36%. The model puts the draw at 35%. The model puts Guinea-Bissau at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Tanzania is priced at 2.52. The draw is priced at 2.625. Guinea-Bissau is priced at 3.075.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →