Africa Cup of Nations

Senegal vs Mozambique: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Senegalvs

Mozambique

Our predictionSenegal to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Senegal at 73%. The model leans toward Senegal. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Senegal.
+The head-to-head record favours Senegal (6-0-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Senegal73%

Draw18%

2 · Mozambique9%

1 · SenegalDraw2 · Mozambique

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.58+8.4%

1X2Senegal1.29+1.6%

1X2Mozambique9.65-0.5%

1X2Draw4.90-1.1%

BTTSYes2.24-8.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

SenegalLWLLD

MozambiqueLLLWL

Team strength rating

Senegal

Mozambique

Most likely scorelines

2-016.9%

1-015.8%

3-012.0%

2-17.9%

0-07.4%

1-17.4%

Expected goals

2.13Senegal

0.47Mozambique

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score33%

Match DNA

Senegal Mozambique

Key points

Senegal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mozambique have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Senegal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Senegal is priced at 1.295.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Senegal win1.29Fair (+1.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	16	7	2
2	17	8	2
3	12	6	1
4	6	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Senegal at 73%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Mozambique at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Senegal. Senegal is priced at 1.295. The draw is priced at 4.9. Mozambique is priced at 9.65.

Senegal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.

Senegal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Mozambique have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →