Mali vs Cape Verde: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Malivs
Cape VerdeThe model puts Mali at 50%. The model leans toward Mali. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mali have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cape Verde have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mali have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mali is priced at 1.912.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mali at 50%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Cape Verde at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Mali. Mali is priced at 1.912. The draw is priced at 3.28. Cape Verde is priced at 4.42.
Mali have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Cape Verde have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mali have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Cape Verde have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mali or Cape Verde?
Our model rates Mali as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mali vs Cape Verde?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Mali wins, 0 draws, 1 Cape Verde wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.