Kenya vs Eritrea: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kenyavs
EritreaThe model puts Kenya at 69%. The model leans toward Kenya. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kenya have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Eritrea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kenya is priced at 1.35.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Kenya at 69%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Eritrea at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Kenya. Kenya is priced at 1.35. The draw is priced at 4.33. Eritrea is priced at 10.2.
Eritrea have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Kenya have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Eritrea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Eritrea are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kenya or Eritrea?
Our model rates Kenya as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kenya vs Eritrea?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Kenya wins, 1 draws, 1 Eritrea wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.