Africa Cup of Nations

Egypt vs Angola: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Egyptvs

Angola

Our predictionEgypt to win

Model score: Medium · 55/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Egypt at 61%. The model leans toward Egypt. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Angola (0-4-4).
−Recent form favours Angola.

Win probabilities

1 · Egypt61%

Draw21%

2 · Angola18%

1 · EgyptDraw2 · Angola

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Angola7.60+5.9%

BTTSYes2.28+3.7%

1X2Draw4.10-1.5%

BTTSNo1.56-3.7%

1X2Egypt1.42-4.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

EgyptLDDLL

AngolaLWDWD

Team strength rating

Egypt

Angola

Most likely scorelines

1-013.8%

2-012.8%

1-110.3%

2-19.5%

3-07.9%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.86Egypt

0.74Angola

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score44%

Match DNA

Egypt Angola

Key points

Egypt have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Angola have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Egypt is priced at 1.42.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Egypt win1.42Avoid (-4.4%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	6	2
1	14	10	4
2	13	10	4
3	8	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	1	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Egypt at 61%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Angola at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Egypt. Egypt is priced at 1.42. The draw is priced at 4.1. Angola is priced at 7.6.

Angola have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Egypt have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Angola have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →