Africa Cup of Nations

Algeria vs Zambia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Algeriavs

Zambia

Our predictionAlgeria to win

Model score: High · 91/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Algeria at 70%. The model leans toward Algeria. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Algeria.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Algeria70%

Draw21%

2 · Zambia9%

1 · AlgeriaDraw2 · Zambia

Full team comparison →

Recent form

AlgeriaLDWLW

ZambiaLLWLD

Team strength rating

Algeria

Zambia

Most likely scorelines

2-016.2%

1-015.5%

3-011.2%

2-18.3%

1-18.0%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

2.09Algeria

0.51Zambia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score35%

Match DNA

Algeria Zambia

Key points

Algeria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Zambia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Algeria have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Algeria is priced at 1.33.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Algeria win1.33Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	4
1	15	8	2
2	16	8	2
3	11	6	1
4	6	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.47+1.7%

1X2Draw4.50+0.2%

1X2Algeria1.33+0.2%

1X2Zambia9.50-0.4%

BTTSYes2.51-1.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Algeria at 70%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Zambia at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Algeria. Algeria is priced at 1.33. The draw is priced at 4.5. Zambia is priced at 9.5.

Algeria have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Zambia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Algeria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Zambia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →