Africa Cup of Nations

Togo vs Burundi: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Togovs

Burundi

Our predictionTogo to win

Model score: Low · 33/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Togo at 59%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Togo59%

Draw25%

2 · Burundi16%

1 · TogoDraw2 · Burundi

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.26+3.1%

1X2Togo1.570.0%

1X2Draw3.640.0%

1X2Burundi5.950.0%

BTTSNo1.57-3.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Togo

Burundi

Most likely scorelines

1-013.8%

2-012.9%

1-110.2%

2-19.5%

3-08.0%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.86Togo

0.74Burundi

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score44%

Match DNA

Togo Burundi

Key points

Togo is priced at 1.57.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Togo win1.57Fair

Double chanceTogo or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	5	2
1	14	10	4
2	13	9	3
3	8	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	1	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Togo at 59%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Burundi at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Togo. Togo is priced at 1.57. The draw is priced at 3.64. Burundi is priced at 5.95.

The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →